Owenyo, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

414
FXUS65 KVEF 182004
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
104 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A trough of low pressure will swing across the western
US during the second half of the week, bringing a chance of
precipitation to the southern Great Basin and reinforcing the
below- normal temperatures. Drier and warmer conditions will
return over the weekend as a high-pressure ridge builds over the
region. &&

.SHORT TERM...Through Friday.

Continuing to watch the trends and potential precipitation impacts
with a deepening upper level low that is expected to shift through
the region Thursday and Friday. Models continue to slow down the
eastward progression of the low, with the center of the low now
expected to be situated over southern Nevada or western Arizona
Friday afternoon. Thursday precipitation chance and amounts have
decreased outside of northern Inyo County and Esmeralda County with
this slower solution. In the areas where precipitation may fall
Thursday, amounts remain unchanged with impacts mainly revolving
around the potential for wet roads in the Owens Valley and the
northwest corner of Esmeralda County. Despite increasing forcing
Thursday with low moving into California, moisture will struggle so
the potential for flash flooding Thursday is low.

Thursday night into Friday the low will continue to swing inland. As
previously mentioned, trends have slowed the system down and now
with the low center sitting somewhere around southern Nevada, Friday
afternoon precipitation chances have changes. With the cold core low
overhead in the afternoon, scattered showers and even isolated
thunderstorms will be possible over much of the region when before
the low was further eats and there was less potential for
precipitation. Friday afternoon precipitation chances have increase,
especially in terrain of southern Nevada and around Mountain Pass,
CA. Again, moisture will be lacking so not expecting widespread
heavy rain or flash flooding, however anyone who was expecting
Friday to be dry or only a low chance for precipitation may be
surprised. Some hi-res models are slower still the the ensemble
means for Friday afternoon so a continued slowing trend is still
possible which would again change precipitation potential and
amounts. Snow will remain in the very high terrain with snow
levels remain at 9000ft or higher, though the first snowflakes of
the season are possible Friday morning on the peaks of the Spring
Mountains.

With the center of the low moving across the region, winds are not
expected to be impactful. This system will reinforce the cooler
than normal temperatures we have been experiencing. Friday`s high
temperatures are now cooler than previously forecasted with the low
slowing down and increased precipitation and overall, temperatures
will run 10-15 degrees below normal for mid to late September.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday. Picking up Saturday morning,
model consensus is for the low to be exiting stage right, with any
lingering precip chances limited to the eastern fringes of our CWA.
As the low departs, the warming trend will begin, and high temps
should be five to 10 degrees warmer Saturday than Friday, except in
the far eastern CWA where clouds and precip chances will hold temps
down one more day. Dry weather then takes hold for the rest of the
period as high pressure builds in from the west, and highs rise
another four to eight degrees from Saturday to Monday before
plateauing on Tuesday. No significant winds are expected through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Light and variable winds will pick up
and swing around to the southeast later this afternoon. These
southeasterly winds will continue into the evening hours before
decreasing slightly and swinging around to the southwest in a
typical diurnal fashion. These southwesterly winds will become light
and variable during the overnight period, continuing  through the
morning hours before picking up out of the southeast during the early
afternoon.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...The remaining Las Vegas Valley TAF sites will follow
similar trends to KLAS with winds picking up and swinging around to
the southeast later this afternoon before becoming light and diurnal
through the overnight hours. KDAG will see light and variable winds
continue into the evening when they will pick up and swing to the
west-southwest through the overnight period. The Colorado River
Valley TAF sites will favor a more southerly direction, varying
between southwesterly and southeasterly, with sustained speeds of 10
knots or less. KBIH will tend to follow typical diurnal directional
trends with sustained winds of 12 knots or less. Vicinity showers
will begin to pop up in the higher terrain surrounding the Owens
Valley later this afternoon with the potential for these showers to
move off the terrain and into the terminal area during the evening
and overnight hours. These showers will be accompanied by CIGS
ranging from 6 to 10 kft.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Nickerson
LONG TERM...Morgan
AVIATION...Stessman

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